Construction of Tomorrow, Prefab notes from Advancing Prefab 2022.

May 22

Notes from my visit to the Advancing Prefab conference in Phoenix two weeks ago.

Waste.

Digital and soft waste lead to hard waste. For every 3 to 4 buildings we build, we throw one entire building away in a landfill.
Owner-driven decisions can have significant downstream impacts that are almost impossible to measure (waste).
The construction industry accounts for 30% of all landfill activity. In some areas, construction waste activity is more than a municipal waste activity.
The tailored approach to what we do kills us. Everything we do is usually forgotten in the grand scheme of industry advancement. We're always in the constant state of relearning, getting back to square one.
Waste is so prevalent in our industry that it is often a constant on both sides of the equation that we never really address.
Today waste is nurtured throughout the delivery process. It changes forms from soft waste to hard wastes such as tolerances, insurances, contingencies, staffing requirements, redesign, and eventually physical waste and much more.

Bryden Wood did a fantastic job making their case for design platforms that harmonize design.
Owners who operate in a portfolio need to be the driving force of prefab adoption to control their destiny. Starting day one with value tied to design harmony (plug and play), cost certainty, risk, schedule certainty, speed, and portfolio scaling.
The next phase of prefab adoption relies on "harmony." Harmony will come through owner/designer-developed platforms that allow interoperability between prefab components,
Harmony relies on letting go of materials that create bottlenecks today. For example, gypsum, insulations, and various finish materials. Wet applied materials are good targets.
Fewer components harmonize. Fewer materials enable.
Owner/Design platforms should cover design, procurement, manufacturing, and assembly plug-and-play strategies.
Owners can still keep their 3 bids approach to drive competitiveness around prefab scopes. Prefab is competitive if it's baked into the design on day 1.
Prefab locks in costs upfront (today, this creates a high-cost perception). Stick-built methods start with a baseline and lock in total costs at the end (tends to create surprising “aha” moments).
In the grand scheme, prefab is cost neutral and will eventually drive down costs as more adoption occurs and labor markets become more and more scarce.

Charlie Dunn's presentation on trust was amazing.
Book to read. "Speed of Trust"
Trust tax. Uncertainty. Contingency
Trust enables harmony, integration, and flow.
Manufacturing is centered around trust and harmony from one component to the next. We need more of this in construction today.
Most/all labor waste for facade contractors is manhours spent surveying, measuring, and shimming (lack of trust). Imagine if they didn't have to do that. How much faster would they go?

The industry will need thousands (not hundreds like we see today) of prefab factories to deliver the construction of tomorrow.
At some point, there needs to be an insurance modifier for prefab since it reduces manhours on-site. OCIPs and CCIPS. Does it cover manhours in the shop?
A significant bottleneck for prefab adoption is regulatory barriers from the permitting and inspection process.
We need an inspection process to be able to cross state lines to remove the need for certification in the final location of prefab components.
Currently, build codes are fragmented by a municipality, county, and state, leading to thousands of ways to build something.
The inspection process is over 150 years old. Today, it exists to inspect and document distinguishing features of work coming together on site. The future of construction and prefab is the opposite; it's offsite.
Zoning reforms and density requirements are changing quickly to provide more affordable dwelling units.
Prefab will help deliver affordable housing at scale, and AHJs will need to adopt building codes to allow it to happen quickly and seamlessly.